What's At Stake: 2127

[Bob_Meteors]

With just 4 weeks left in the regular season, it's time to bring back What's At Stake. This year, I'll just do weekly updates as replies to this post. Heading into September, we've got some exciting races in both leagues - let's take a look.

In the ABL, the league-leading Havana Dolphins sit 5 games clear of the rest of the Latin American Division. With two series against non-divisional teams - the Mexico City Aztecs and Edmonton Trappers - a good week could lock down the division title.

The Dolphins are being chased by the Santo Domingo Palmchats (5 games back)  and Rio de Janeiro Jaguars (6 games back). Both of these teams also play outside the division this week, with Santo Domingo matching up against Edmonton and the Los Angeles Stars, while Rio will take on the Phoenix Burros and the Aztecs. Any (or all) of the Latin American top three could easily go 6-0 this week, making a winning sim even more important. The window to catch up to the Dolphins likely ends this week, unless we see some surprise losses.

The most interesting race in the ABL is the North American Division title race. With the Burros sitting just one game above .500, followed closely behind by the Stars and Northwest Emeralds at exactly .500 and Aztecs one game below, it's highly likely that this division will only have one playoff team (again). That makes this week hugely important for the four teams in contention, as Phoenix takes on Rio and the São Paulo Toucans, LA plays the Puerto Rico Coqui and the Palmchats, Northwest meets São Paulo and Puerto Rico, and Mexico City plays Havana and Rio. With all due respect to the Coqui, it's hard to deny that LA and Northwest have the easier schedules for this week. We may have a much clearer picture of the North American pretty soon.

Finally, the Toucans shouldn't be counted out of the playoffs yet - just four games outside the wild card (yet with the same record as the North American leaders), São Paulo needs a big week pretty soon. With no divisional matchups, they'll look to make up some ground with wins against Northwest and Phoenix. A bad week could dash their hopes, while a good week (plus some luck) could bring them back within striking distance.

Over in the IBL, the Mumbai Cobras have already clinched the Asian Division title, and sit 14 games ahead of the Cairo Pharaohs for the #1 seed. They'll play the Paris Fleur-de-Lis before matching up with Cairo, but it's hard to pretend these games matter much to Mumbai, who've essentially locked down home-field advantage.

Cairo, meanwhile, leads the Afro-European Division by seven games. They'll match up with the Karachi Falcons before playing Mumbai. Cairo won't clinch the division this week, but barring any sort of collapse, they should be able to put a stranglehold on it.

In the actual close race, the Ljubljana Dragons have surged out of nowhere to take a four-game lead on the first wild card. They're not mathematically eliminated from the division title yet, but are more than likely going to focus on defending the wild card - and with series against the Manila Baseball Team and Melbourne Meteors, who are five and four games away, respectively, the Dragons have an opportunity to put a lot of distance between them and their chasers - or they could see their lead slip away.

The Meteors are currently tied with the Rome Generals for the second wild-card, and they will play the Generals followed by the Dragons. This is a crucial few games for the Meteors, who could catch Ljubljana with a good week or fall out of the playoffs entirely with a bad week.

Rome has it slightly easier. They'll look to take sole possession of the wild card with a series win against Melbourne, then play the struggling Karachi Falcons. A good week could leave the Generals fairly well positioned in the playoff hunt.

After firing their manager over a botched trade negotiation, and amidst rumors of other managers pressuring the team into a name change, the Manila Baseball Team has fallen out of playoff position. But with new management finally stepping in, the Baseball Team has time to turn their season around, especially being just one game out of the wild card (although behind two tied teams). They'll play the Dragons and the newly-tanking Black Forest Foxes, and with some losses by Rome and Melbourne, could see themselves in a playoff spot by the end of the week.

[Bob_Meteors]

18 games remain in the regular season, and the playoff races are as tight as ever. It'll be exciting to see which teams will make it in (or, if you're a manager of one of the struggling teams, sort of terrifying). This week features several important matchups:

In the ABL, the Dolphins' division lead has shrunk to four games, but they'll have a chance to essentially clinch the division this week, taking on the mediocre Los Angeles Stars before facing the second-place Santo Domingo Palmchats, the only team who can realistically catch the Phins. A good week will lock down the #1 seed, while a loss to the Palmchats could allow the division lead to slip.

Santo Domingo, meanwhile, has to worry about holding their first wild card spot. Six games clear of the first non-playoff team, the Palmchats seem pretty likely to make the playoffs, but a WC1 matchup against the North American winner is much more appealing than facing Havana in the first round. Santo Domingo is only three games ahead of the Rio de Janeiro Jaguars for the first wild-card spot, and faces the Northwest Emeralds before their matchup with Havana (a must-win to keep hopes of the division title alive, although not a must-win for a playoff spot).

Rio has a chance to make a push for the first wild-card as well, facing the league-worst Edmonton Trappers and the Emeralds. Just three games out of the WC1 and three games clear of losing the WC2 spot, Rio could really use a winning sim, and with some winnable matchups, this is the week to do it.

Rio's job will be made harder by the easy schedule of the São Paulo Toucans, who face the Mexico City Aztecs and Puerto Rico Coqui. A three-game deficit with 18 to play is doable, but the Toucans can't afford a bad week if they want to make the playoffs.

Over in the NFC East North American Division, the Phoenix Burros managed to maintain their one-game lead over the rest of the division. They'll face Puerto Rico before a crucial divisional clash with Mexico City, who are just two games behind. With a good week, Phoenix could make the job of their chasers much more difficult, and could essentially eliminate the Aztecs.

The Los Angeles Stars face the league-best Havana Dolphins and league-worst Edmonton Trappers. They'll need a very good series against Edmonton to offset some probable losses to Havana. Just one game behind Phoenix, but four games behind Rio for WC2, the Stars (and Emeralds, who have the same record) will probably need to catch Phoenix to have any shot at the playoffs, and perhaps a good showing vs the Dolphins could prove that they belong there.

This is a "prove it" week for the Northwest Emeralds, who face the Palmchats and Jaguars. By record, the Emeralds seem mediocre, but they have one of the best run differentials in the ABL. If they're truly a playoff team, they shouldn't just roll over and lose to the Latin American teams - which is good, because in such a tight race, they can't afford to. Northwest could make a statement with a good week, or could fall completely out of contention with a bad one.

The Aztecs are in an odd position. Two games back with 18 to play doesn't seem too difficult, but they have to catch and overtake three different teams to make it to the playoffs. Every win is essential, and they'll have two tough but winnable matchups, facing São Paulo and Phoenix, the latter of which is essentially a must-win.

Over in the IBL, the Mumbai Cobras are 14 games clear of the entire league, and with 18 left to play, it's safe to say they'll be the #1 seed. Cairo is six games ahead of their division, and should lock down the division title this week, as they play the two worst teams in the league, the Tokyo Shogun and Paris Fleur-de-Lis.

The Ljubljana Dragons have a five-game buffer in the first wild-card spot, and could gain even more ground this week, as they'll face the Karachi Falcons and Rome Generals (who are currently in WC2). The Dragons-Generals series could essentially clinch the first wild-card for Ljubljana with a win.

The Generals, on the other hand, should be more worried about defending their second wild-card spot, as they'll face the Mumbai Cobras before playing the Dragons. A sweep of Ljubljana could open up the WC1 race, but a bad week could cause the Generals to lose their three-game buffer in the WC2 spot. They'll need a decent week.

The Manila Baseball Team have a huge opportunity, as they'll play Paris and Tokyo and sit only three games outside the playoffs. A 6-0 week is definitely possible, and that could close the gap in one fell swoop.

The Melbourne Meteors are four games behind Rome, but will need to overtake Manila as well. This week is a must-win, as they'll play the Black Forest Foxes and Karachi Falcons, and need to win both series (and probably sweep one) to have a real chance at the playoffs.