IBL Playoff Race Living Up To Hype

[Dembe Kihiga]

Before the 2128 WBA season started, it was apparent there were seven legitimately good teams in the IBL. Now, over halfway through the season, that's proven true, as seven teams sit at or above .500 and have a chance at a playoff spot. What's gone right - and wrong - for these seven, and who can we expect in the playoffs in a few months? I'll look at the most successful and least successful aspects of each team - which could be a single player, but are more likely to be a broader category - and the most surprising success and failure, which will be a player. I'll also list one thing for fans of each team to monitor during the coming weeks.

Ljubljana Dragons
The Dragons are here to stay. Led by a core of young, talented stars, they will be a force in the IBL for years to come. But their success this year - currently leading the entire IBL by a game - might be surprising to those used to seeing Mumbai and Cairo dominate.
Most Successful Aspect: Youth
Ljubljana is led by young stars. RF Will Wilson (24 years old) has 3.3 WAR in 88 games, LF Misao Kokura (26) has 3.3 in 84, and 3B Jack Rushton (25) has 3.1 in 90, while starting pitchers Norbert Torrigiani (25) and Bachir Cadet (26) have combined for 5.4 WAR and 19 wins.
Least Successful Aspect: Bullpen
This will seem a bit nitpicky, which is natural - a team with a .644 winning percentage in a tough division won't have many huge weaknesses. But the Dragons' bullpen hasn't been perfect so far. Setup reliever Gilberto Arenos, acquired via trade after a good season in Phoenix, has an ERA of 4.55 and FIP of 4.53 in 31.2 innings, while long reliever Kashyap Subas has an ERA of 6.97 and FIP of 4.97 in 20.2 innings. It's a small detail but one that might be worth addressing as the trade deadline approaches.
Most Surprising Success: CL Kusumojvala Krishnamma
Three disappointing seasons in a row gave Krishnamma a career ERA of 4.24, and it seemed his career as a starting pitcher was doomed. But this year's move to the bullpen has proven to be a difference-maker, as he boasts an ERA of 3.21 and FIP of 2.23, as well as 54 strikeouts in just 42 innings. Every true contender needs an elite closer, and Krishnamma is proving to be just that for Ljubljana.
Most Surprising Failure: 2B Ângelo Braz
Acquired via trade, Braz was coming off of a 4.0 WAR season in Melbourne in just 129 games. But so far this year, he's not living up to the hype. Braz is hitting .287 but has a wRC+ of just 87 and has put up less than one WAR in 82 games. Not worth the hefty contract of $7.85 million, which Ljubljana is stuck with through 2130.
What to Watch: CF Bertrand Thorington
Before this week, I was prepared to call Thorington a disappointment, as his batting stats were not good. Yet after a .429 week, he's currently hitting .248 with a wRC+ of 113, and has put up 1.9 WAR in 64 games partially thanks to his plus defense (+1.5 ZR in center field this year). Thorington, a former 1st overall pick, has the potential to be a perennial MVP contender, and if his bat is heating up, he could be a big difference-maker to the Dragons as they fight to hold on to the division.

Cairo Pharaohs
After an IBL pennant, Cairo didn't need to change much. But a busy offseason saw them make significant upgrades, mostly at 2B. They're certainly a threat to defend their pennant.
Most Successful Aspect: Offense
The Pharaohs have three hitters with wRC+ of over 140: 2B Mitchell McCauley, RF Srikant Hattangady, and 3B Ruy Avelar, who are all hitting above .300 and have over 10 home runs. Six of their starting eight hitters have wRC+ over 120. Offensive production at that level turns a team into immediate contenders, which the Pharaohs are.
Least Successful Aspect: Starting Pitching
Judging by rating, Cairo's rotation should be top-of-the-line, and indeed ace Mathias Klug is having a great season. But their #2 and #3 starters - Balayogi Parthiban and Alfredo Cavazos - have been disappointing. Parthiban's ERA, just 2.49 last season, is 4.01 this year, and his WHIP is 1.32, both well above his career averages. Cavazos's ERA also ballooned to 4.26, while his WHIP is 1.40 and his FIP is 4.00. Of course, two mediocre pitchers can be overcome by a good offense, but Cairo could be even more of a powerhouse if those two lived up to their potential. The WBA Times can report that Cairo is considering moving Cavazos to the bullpen, which could help solve this issue.
Most Surprising Success: 3B Ruy Avelar
Avelar was acquired via trade last season, and was disappointing, hitting just .230 in 54 games with Cairo. This year, he's been on a tear, hitting .324 with 16 home runs and a wRC+ of 148. That, plus above-average fielding, have given Avelar 4.1 WAR in just 90 games. It was obvious he'd bounce back, but not obvious he'd be a frontrunner for MVP.
Most Surprising Disappointment: SS Hwen-Thiang Guo
Take this with a grain of salt, as Guo remains a very good player. But after putting up 6.3 and 5.9 WAR, respectively, in the past two seasons, this year is a bit of a down year, as he's on pace for just 4.7 - which still makes him a top player, but not quite as elite as fans may have expected.
What to Watch: Starting Pitching
Parthiban and Cavazos should be better than they are. It's very possible that they'll heat up and turn into aces again, which would make Cairo truly formidable for the playoffs. It's also possible that one of them - most likely Cavazos - is traded.

Mumbai Cobras
Isn't it strange that Mumbai isn't leading the IBL? Having announced a plan to move to Texas, the Cobras are hoping for one last division title (and pennant), but despite several improvements, are no longer the runaway favorites.
Most Successful Aspect: Offseason Moves
Mumbai's splashiest offseason move was acquiring CF Stu Jensen from Santo Domingo, who's been excellent so far, hitting .306 with 18 home runs and 4.1 WAR in 90 games. The Cobras also shipped out fan favorite Isko Fflunker, who will be a unanimous Hall of Famer in a Cobras uniform someday, but was reaching the end of his superstar-level career - and indeed, this year, he put up negative WAR in Phoenix before being waived and traded.
Least Successful Aspect: Ilari Belmon's Position Change
It's really hard to find anything wrong with Mumbai. I settled on this because, honestly, I don't have much else. They tried an experiment, moving all-star 1B Ilari Belmon to left field, and it didn't work - he's on pace for just 4.2 WAR, after putting up over 8 three seasons in a row. Sometimes things don't work out, and Mumbai can hardly be faulted for trying something new, but on a team with no major flaws, this was the least successful thing I could find.
Most Surprising Success: CF Stu Jensen
It's not really all that surprising that Jensen, when moving from Santo Domingo to Mumbai, would turn into an even better hitter. But he's on pace for over 7 WAR, a mark he's never reached. Not really surprising, but nobody on Mumbai is particularly surprising, so we're going with Jensen.
Most Surprising Failure: C Shahnawaz Hussain
Hussain is on pace to finish very similarly to his career averages in most statistical categories, so it shouldn't be that surprising. But he's a 7/9/7/6/7 hitter vs LHP and RHP, and it continues to surprise me that he's just hitting .222 with a wRC+ of 89. He should be a really good hitter, and I don't know why he's not.
What to Watch: Starting Pitching
Some of Mumbai's starters - Tat Ling, Jabber Khan, and Dylan Ainslie - have very good ERAs but mediocre-to-bad FIPs. This could be a potential warning sign that they might regress later this year. Keep an eye out on the Mumbai rotation for signs of weakness.

Manila Folders
In their last season in the IBL, the Folders are trying to make a final playoff push before a likely rebuild. They're currently in playoff position, although just barely.
Most Successful Aspect: Starting Pitching
Just like every year, Manila's pitching is carrying the team. The trio of Emmanuel Debussy, Wen-zhong Cheng, and Gilles Flores have combined for 25 wins and 9.8 WAR so far, and all three have FIPs lower than their ERAs, indicating they could get even better in the future.
Least Successful Aspect: Everything Else
Also just like every other year, Manila's stud pitchers are let down by a weak offense. Only three batters have a wRC+ over 120, and four of their starting eight hitters are below 110 (including 2 below 100). It's not that Manila hasn't tried, just that several newly acquired bats have been disappointing (more on that later). Their bullpen is also pretty bad, as three relievers (including closer Tomomi Aoki) have ERAs over 4. Any team with three aces is a threat, but it really makes you wonder just how good Gilles Flores's career will be when he's traded, or when post-rebuild Manila gets a real team to play behind him.
Most Surprising Success: LF Mao-you Liao
After a truly terrible 2127, with 0.1 WAR in 90 games, Liao looks like a player reborn. He's hitting .335 with 2.6 WAR in 74 games, and has already surpassed his career high in WAR. Out of nowhere, Liao is finally living up to his ratings.
Most Surprising Failure: RF Elliot Skinner
A down year in 2127 might have been an indication that Skinner was beginnign to decline, but nobody expected him, a career .300 hitter, to be hitting .241 with only 1.4 WAR. Skinner's almost $10 million contract is looking like a mistake so far. If he could turn it around, expect Manila's offense to be jump-started.
What to Watch: Trades
It seems like Manila is so close to being truly elite, and if GM Mark Waller feels the same way, don't be shocked to see a few trades coming soon, perhaps for an elite reliever. At the same time, Manila might enter a rebuild soon, so Waller might feel uneasy about trading futures for current players.

Melbourne Meteors
Led by a typically trigger-happy GM, the Meteors have made fewer major trades than usual this year. Sitting one game outside of playoff contention, some moves might be in order soon.
Most Successful Aspect: Outfield
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Melbourne starting outfield has been excellent this year. CF Dhuninatha Ravandur, the 2126 IBL Rookie of the Year, is hitting .372 with 3.9 WAR, while rookie RF Juan Mesa has put up 2.6 WAR, on pace for over 5. It shows just how strong this outfield is when Nelson Ackland is an afterthought - on pace for 3.5 WAR, Ackland is clearly the third-best Melbourne outfielder.
Least Successful Aspect: Starting Pitching
Melbourne's top three pitchers - Hung-K'uei He, Anupradana Koushika, and Tetsuya Kudo - all have ERAs over 3.90 and FIPs over 4.00. The back of the rotation has been better, but those three need to step it up immediately for Melbourne to have a chance at the playoffs.
Most Surprising Success: C Gu Jong
Jong spent his whole career in Rio before a midseason trade last year sent him to Melbourne, where he hit .269 in 84 games. This year, in only 70, Jong is hitting .364 and has 2.6 WAR, and is on pace for 4.3. Being part of a platoon helps, but these are still career numbers for Jong.
Most Surprising Failure: SP Hung-K'uei He
He, the 2127 IBL Pitcher of the Year, is having a bad season. There's no way to sugarcoat that. His ERA is 4.85, his WHIP is 1.57, and his FIP is 4.72, all career lows (highs, technically, but in a bad way). This is nothing less than shocking. If He can turn it around, it'll be a huge boost to the Meteors.
What to Watch: Starting Pitching
Not to sound like a broken record, but pitching is the key to Melbourne's success or failure. If He, Koushika, and Kudo can turn it around, Melbourne is as good as anyone in the IBL, but if not, they may miss the playoffs entirely.

Rome Generals
After a heartbreaking play-in loss to miss the 2127 playoffs, Rome is back and ready to compete again. They're just two games outside the wild card after a six-game losing streak.
Most Successful Aspect: 3B Salvador Ruíz
Ruíz, a rookie third baseman, has been incredible since his callup, hitting .276 with 10 HRs and 2.6 WAR in just 60 games (a 6.8 WAR pace over a full season). Ruíz is a surprise contender for Rookie of the Year, and looks set to be Rome's third baseman for many years to come.
Least Successful Aspect: Starting Pitching
Four of Rome's five starters have ERAs over 4, and all five have FIPs over 4. That is not good. I could say more, but I'm not going to.
Most Surprising Success: SS Tome Cisneiros
This is not meant as a disrespect to Cisneiros, who is a very good player. But typically, moving from the Santo Domingo ballpark to the Rome ballpark wouldn't be great for a hitter. Cisneiros is bucking that expectation, as he's on track to reach a career high in batting average (as well as WAR).
Most Surprising Failure: RF Shenouda Rehani
It was obvious that, given his age and declining fielding ratings, Rehani would probably not be putting up 6 WAR seasons anymore. But nobody expected him to put up 0. Yet, through 90 games, Rehani's WAR is -0.1, despite a wRC+ of 117. He's under contract for over $9 million for two years after this. Not ideal.
What to Watch: Trades
Rome feels like a team that's close to being really good. The acquisition of Cisneiros has proven successful, and a trade for a starting pitcher or right fielder could get the Generals into a playoff spot. We'll see what they decide to do.

Karachi Falcons
A team that's perpetually worse than they really should be, Karachi has made some acquisitions, and now looks to make the playoffs in the best division in the league.
Most Successful Aspect: Free Agency
This is really just a roundabout way of praising 3B Paco Prado, who's having a truly ridiculous year. Prado is hitting .346 and has already put up 4.1 WAR in 88 games. It's anyone's guess whether he can sustain that pace, of course, but right now, for less than $5 million, this looks like one of the greatest free agent signings in recent memory.
Least Successful Aspect: Bullpen
Four of Karachi's relievers have ERAs over 4.50, which isn't good. On the other hand, look for this to improve, as none of them have FIPs over 4.50, which suggests they're getting unlucky. For now, though, the bullpen has definitely been a weak spot.
Most Surprising Success: SP/RF Damiano Zoffoli
For years, GMs have been trying to make a two-way player work, and have had some measure of success. But Zoffoli looks to become the best one ever, by a lot. He's currently boasting a 3.93 ERA and 3.70 FIP, good for 3.0 pitching WAR, but he's also hitting .375 with a wRC+ of 161, good for 2.5 batting WAR. For those keeping track, that means he's on pace for 9.53 total WAR. Zoffoli might be the most valuable player in the entire league right now.
Most Surprising Failure: SP Dan Greene
Recently acquired via trade from Puerto Rico, Greene had a 3.04 ERA and 3.07 FIP last season. This year, those numbers are 4.65 and 3.95, respectively. He did move from a pitchers' park to a hitters' park, but still, that's unexpectedly bad.
What to Watch: Reversion to the Mean
Greene and the bullpen have been much worse than they should. They could turn it around and make Karachi a real playoff contender. On the other hand, players having career years like Prado and CF Cristo Álvarez could regress back towards their career averages. Karachi feels like a team that could get much better, or much worse, without making any moves.

Who will make the playoffs? At this point, it's way too close to predict. But what kind of an article would this be if I didn't make any predictions?
1. Cairo Pharaohs
2. Mumbai Cobras
3. Ljubljana Dragons
4. Melbourne Meteors

5. Karachi Falcons
6. Manila Folders
7. Rome Generals

[Kevin]

Good stuff. Thanks for taking the time to do this, Bob.