Author Topic: WBA 2112 Season Preview (Read 2639 times)

Huckleberry · « **on:** February 18, 2018, 07:43:29 AM »

Monday, February 1, 2112
Santo Domingo

It's time for our annual WBA Preview edition. As always we bring you the official Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ results.

First, the ABL.

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Northwest Emeralds	98	58	0.628	-
Los Angeles Stars	84	72	0.538	14
Mexico City Aztecs	74	82	0.474	24
Ottawa Whiskey Jacks	70	86	0.449	28
Carolina Flight	65	91	0.417	33

LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Buenos Aires Dolphins	98	58	0.628	-
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	87	69	0.558	11
Sao Paulo Toucans	73	83	0.468	25
Puerto Rico Coqui	66	90	0.423	32
Santo Domingo Palmchats	65	91	0.417	33

Last year the Predictor 3000 thought that the eventual WBA Champion Jaguars would miss the playoffs. While the computer isn't as down on them this season the thought is that they will once again need a special and fortuitous playoff run to become the second team to repeat as world champions.

Overall, though, we shouldn't expect much change in the ABL balance of power. The only change in playoff teams predicted for 2112 is Los Angeles taking Mexico City's place. Aztec fans are probably still too busy celebrating their country's WBA triumph to concern themselves with preseason predictions of doom, however. One interesting note is that the balance between divisions in the ABL appears vastly improved as the North American is actually predicted to have a winning record over the Latin American for the first time in recent memory. Whether they can turn that into their first ABL pennant since Los Angeles's 2104 world title remains to be seen.

Now, the IBL:

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Black Forest Foxes	102	54	0.654	-
London Monarchs	90	66	0.577	12
Barcelona Bulls	86	70	0.551	16
Rome Generals	81	75	0.519	21
Paris Fleur-de-Lis	46	110	0.295	56

ASIAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Karachi Falcons	87	69	0.558	-
Mumbai Cobras	84	72	0.538	3
Shanghai Sharks	81	75	0.519	6
Manila Folders	69	87	0.442	18
Melbourne Meteors	54	102	0.346	33

It looks like another exciting year in the IBL with 7 teams looking like strong playoff contenders. In the European Division the Foxes are favored to bounce back with another division championship but London doesn't look like their first playoff appearance will be a fluke. Defending pennant winners Barcelona are in for a fight to earn a chance to defend their league title.

Meanwhile in the Asian Division dire financial straits have caught up with 2108 world champion Melbourne and they're starting to hurt in Mumbai as well. Karachi is favored to repeat as division champions while this may be the year that the process pays off with a playoff appearance in Shanghai if things break right.

Coop · « **Reply #1 on:** February 18, 2018, 01:57:58 PM »

As GM of the Foxes, I obviously love the look of these predictions, especially since we even have one of the league's lower payrolls, but I'm not counting on anything. One issue my team has is that several key players are listed as "Fragile." Most of them spent a fair amount of time on the DL last year, and if they do so again this year, we certainly won't be winning 102 games. (For those who care, my key players who are Fragile are RF Bao-tian Qian, 3B An-shi Chin, CF Jim Alexander, SP Huo-tu Cheng and RP Manny Juarez. Qian and Cheng were both listed as "Normal" at the start of last season, but each one got hurt during the 2111 campaign and OOTP immediately reclassified them as "Fragile," which prompted some bad language in the Black Forest executive suite.)

Also I notice that the Afro-Euro Division is insanely strong; going to be hard for any team to win 100+ games playing most of its games in that division.

Huckleberry · « **Reply #2 on:** February 18, 2018, 04:20:00 PM »

Yep, my system doesn't take injury proneness into account at all. Andy Stone is a legend in the Huckleberry Predictor 3000™!

JohnC · « **Reply #3 on:** February 19, 2018, 11:48:19 AM »

? A 2 game improvement? With adding Yamada, Amico, Reeves, Hernandez, and Jiang?

Me thinks the Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ is broken.

Echo127 · « **Reply #4 on:** February 19, 2018, 05:49:23 PM »

Quote from: JohnC on February 19, 2018, 11:48:19 AM

? A 2 game improvement? With adding Yamada, Amico, Reeves, Hernandez, and Jiang?

Me thinks the Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ is broken.

That was my thought, too. And I'm predicted to win significantly more than last year's Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ said, despite only adding Chris Boone and losing Pedro Alejandre to regression.

Huckleberry · « **Reply #5 on:** February 22, 2018, 01:51:05 PM »

Okay, with draft picks in the organizations, recent signings, and recent trades, here are the updated predictions:

ABL

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Northwest Emeralds	97	59	0.622	-
Los Angeles Stars	83	73	0.532	14
Mexico City Aztecs	73	83	0.468	24
Ottawa Whiskey Jacks	69	87	0.442	28
Carolina Flight	65	91	0.417	32

LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Buenos Aires Dolphins	99	57	0.635	-
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	87	69	0.558	12
Sao Paulo Toucans	72	84	0.462	27
Puerto Rico Coqui	68	88	0.436	31
Santo Domingo Palmchats	67	89	0.429	32

IBL

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Black Forest Foxes	103	53	0.660	-
London Monarchs	90	66	0.577	13
Barcelona Bulls	88	68	0.564	15
Rome Generals	81	75	0.519	22
Paris Fleur-de-Lis	47	109	0.301	56

ASIAN DIVISION

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Karachi Falcons	90	66	0.577	-
Mumbai Cobras	83	73	0.532	7
Shanghai Sharks	81	75	0.519	9
Manila Folders	63	93	0.404	27
Melbourne Meteors	54	102	0.346	36

And the 2112 Preseason Power Rankings:

	WBA POWER RANKINGS
#	Team	W	L	PCT	GB
1.	Buenos Aires Dolphins	101	55	0.647	-
2.	Northwest Emeralds	98	58	0.628	3
3.	Black Forest Foxes	97	59	0.622	4
4.	Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	90	66	0.577	11
5.	London Monarchs	87	69	0.558	14
5.	Los Angeles Stars	87	69	0.558	14
7.	Barcelona Bulls	85	71	0.545	16
8.	Karachi Falcons	83	73	0.532	18
9.	Rome Generals	78	78	0.500	23
9.	Mumbai Cobras	78	78	0.500	23
11.	Mexico City Aztecs	77	79	0.494	24
12.	Sao Paulo Toucans	76	80	0.487	25
13.	Shanghai Sharks	75	81	0.481	26
14.	Ottawa Whiskey Jacks	73	83	0.468	28
15.	Puerto Rico Coqui	72	84	0.462	29
15.	Santo Domingo Palmchats	72	84	0.462	29
17.	Carolina Flight	70	86	0.449	31
18.	Manila Folders	60	96	0.385	41
19.	Melbourne Meteors	51	105	0.327	50
20.	Paris Fleur-de-Lis	48	108	0.308	53

DIVISION RANKINGS:

	WBA DIVISION RANKINGS
#	Division	WPCT
1.	Latin American	0.530
2.	Afro-European	0.518
3.	North American	0.518
4.	Asian	0.434

Huckleberry · « **Reply #6 on:** February 22, 2018, 01:57:44 PM »

Congratulations are in order for Mexico City. Last year's eventual WBA Champion Rio de Janeiro was predicted to miss the playoffs in my predictions and was #11 in the overall WBA power rankings.

claphamsa · « **Reply #7 on:** February 22, 2018, 07:42:29 PM »

so i sign a mega FA, then trade him...and gain 1 game in the projections!

Echo127 · « **Reply #8 on:** February 22, 2018, 09:37:29 PM »

Huck, how do you get access to the info you use to make your predictions? Im guessing that you sont manually look through every organization.

Huckleberry · « **Reply #9 on:** February 23, 2018, 06:13:30 AM »

Copy and paste from the players screens into a spreadsheet. You can edit views but the key is clicking on Report...Write report to disk. Then it opens in a browser and you can copy/paste.

Huckleberry · « **Reply #10 on:** February 23, 2018, 03:00:58 PM »

FYI to all as I got a question about this. By players screens I meant the Players list for your organization, like this:

Huckleberry · « **Reply #11 on:** February 24, 2018, 01:31:40 PM »

WBA Times 2112 Preseason Top Players Lists

These lists are not straight from OOTP but are based on my player value model, the same on that my crappy predictions use. However, unlike the predictions, I took the 21 highest value players at each position and called #21 the replacement value for that position. So these rankings are based on each player's value above #21 at their position. For starting pitchers it's their value compared to #101, for relief pitchers it's their value compared to #66 (I assumed 5-man rotations and an even mix of 11-man and 12-man pitching staffs). Another disclaimer is that I put each player at their best defensive position based on my model as well. So if you have a guy learning a new spot then he got dinged. If you have a bunch of guys who share a position (like London having a whole bunch of dudes who should be first basemen) then that's reflected here as well.

Top 100 Overall

Spoiler: show

Top 50 Position Players

Spoiler: show

Top 30 Starting Pitchers

Spoiler: show

Top 35 Relievers

Spoiler: show

I started this exercise just as a way to reevaluate players in the WBA but thought I'd share. From the results I've already noticed some things about my system I may want to tweak (e.g., relievers without good stuff appear to be overrated).

Huckleberry · « **Reply #12 on:** February 24, 2018, 01:34:27 PM »

By the way, for now I've decided against publishing my own top prospects list. Ha.

Huckleberry · « **Reply #13 on:** February 25, 2018, 09:17:43 AM »

Well I couldn't resist, so after enough tweaking to where I think it won't affect my ability to trade, here are my Top Prospect lists.

Top 100 Overall

Spoiler: show

Top 50 Position Players

Spoiler: show

Top 30 Starting Pitchers

Spoiler: show

Top 35 Relief Pitchers

Spoiler: show

claphamsa · « **Reply #14 on:** February 25, 2018, 09:44:17 AM »

the top lists are all BS!

#hashimoto for MVP!

Echo127 · « **Reply #15 on:** February 25, 2018, 09:52:18 AM »

Holy crap, Reinhardt Rueckl. Drafted with potential stuff = 8. Now potential stuff = 13.

Huckleberry · « **Reply #16 on:** February 25, 2018, 09:54:42 AM »

Well they're based on my system and I, uh, haven't won much the last few years so take them with a huge grain of salt.

Huckleberry · « **Reply #17 on:** February 25, 2018, 09:55:49 AM »

Quote from: Echo127 on February 25, 2018, 09:52:18 AM

Holy crap, Reinhardt Rueckl. Drafted with potential stuff = 8. Now potential stuff = 13.

Some of that is switching from SP to relief. But yeah, he's a weird case. He's got two great pitches but one of them is supposed to tank based on potential. But he's got another pitch that is supposed to become elite to make up for it.

Claybor · « **Reply #18 on:** February 25, 2018, 10:18:59 AM »

Posted to wrong thread.

CaseyBlakeDeWitt · « **Reply #19 on:** February 25, 2018, 12:03:32 PM »

Quote from: Huckleberry on February 25, 2018, 09:55:49 AM

Some of that is switching from SP to relief. But yeah, he's a weird case. He's got two great pitches but one of them is supposed to tank based on potential. But he's got another pitch that is supposed to become elite to make up for it.

Yeah, his stuff drops to 11 as a SP. His Change-Up (the pitch thats current rating is way outrunning its potential) has actually gone up this spring and he added a 4th pitch over the offseason. I'm optimistic he'll be able to find success as a starter for at least a little while.

Rueckl is also the second guy I've had receive a crazy uptick in stuff post-draft, with Juan Padilla rocketing from 6 to 12 (though Rome actually drafted Rueckl, not me).

Huckleberry · « **Reply #20 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:05:04 AM »

Thought I'd go through the overall top players list to see where guys were drafted because there's a lot of interest in 1st rounders tanking, etc. Here is the Top 100 and their draft round.

Spoiler: show

Ryan Hernandez, 3B, 2105 Draft, Round 9
Akrura Puli, C, 2105 Draft, Round 2
Carlos Vargas, SS, 2102 Draft, Round 1
Salim Tuncay, 3B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Serhat Karpat, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 2
Haywood Ward, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 1
Zia Sirki, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
Roberto Parrina, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
Mathew Burke, SP, 2110 Draft, Round 1
Erik Schiff, 1B, 2107 Draft, Round 2
Teodosio Mascarenhas, C, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Tamirat Sifiye, SS, 2103 Draft, Round 2
Dan Harmon, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 15
Felipe Corond, SS, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Achaius Mainaky, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 7
Yu-shu Lung, SP, 2104 Draft, Round 6
Afzul Isfahani, 1B, 2107 Draft, Round 2
Shi-fu Cen, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 3
Jason Himes, 2B, 2106 Draft, Round 2
Miguel Angel Martinez, LF, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Pedro Gomez, LF, 2105 Draft, Round 3
Tom McGregor, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Jay Standish, LF, 2109 Draft, Round 1
Juliano Barrantes, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
Antonio Rivera, SS, 2107 Draft, Round 3
Hector Velasquez, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Sapto Djojopoespito, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 2
Zhi-jun Thum, C, 2107 Draft, Round 3
Steve Tibbs, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Tomas Salinas, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 4
Nick Hammond, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 2
Alfredo Ruiz, 2B, 2105 Draft, Round 2
Gaudencio Brigham, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 3
Ronnie Drew, CF, 2105 Draft, Round 13
Gaudencio Bobadilha, SP, 2108 Draft, Round 1
Mabarak Mohmand, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
Sadiq Sumai, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 9
Saud Naji, C, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Ben Reese, SP, 2102 Draft, Round 1
Piero Folena, SS, 2102 Draft, Round 1
Ahvana Subbarayudu, 1B, 2102 Draft, Round 1
Cisco Argente, SS, 2102 Draft, Round 1
Justin White, MR, Inaugural Draft, Round 4
Astika Saraswathi, SP, 2105 Draft, Round 2
Cheslav Zamorov, LF, 2102 Draft, Round 1
Wang-fen Xiang, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Abdeljilill Abedi, SP, 2104 Draft, Round 6
Ahmad Iman, 3B, 2105 Draft, Round 1
Wei-kang Ping, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Itri Jela, C, 2104 Draft, Round 17
Tony Gutierrez, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Jorge Tapia, RF, 2109 Draft, Round 1
Jesus Huerta, 3B, 2109 Draft, Round 1
Jin-guo Chin, 3B, 2104 Draft, Round 4
Owen Stanton, 2B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Michael Smith, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 1
Ricardo Peralta, 3B, 2108 Draft, Round 1
Ming Song, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Tony Cruz, RF, 2105 Draft, Round 2
Tariq Ali Khan, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Khamurti Preetish, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 4
Bhuvanacandra Dwijen, LF, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Gong Jiang, LF, 2103 Draft, Round 1
Jim Alexander, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 3
Blake Waller, C, 2107 Draft, Round 6
Doan Ba, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 17
Roberto Morales, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 9
Gadiel bin Salman, SP, 2102 Draft, Round 1
Baldassario Canalo, SP, 2105 Draft, Round 5
Angelo Chavez, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 1
Sun-ho Kim, 1B, 2104 Draft, Round 4
Germano Penaguio, 2B, 2107 Draft, Round 2
Han-wu Han, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 17
Ivan Lopez, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Janardan Shreerang, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 19
Harsendu Dhurvasula, LF, 2103 Draft, Round 10
Aziz Ahmadzai, RF, 2104 Draft, Round 2
Raul Rodriguez, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 2
Andy Stone, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 91
Huo-tu Cheng, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Pat Morris, SP, 2105 Draft, Round 1
Nasih bin Kamil, SP, 2104 Draft, Round 11
Kenkichi Adachi, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 2
Serafino Cunhal, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 1
Zuleide Rainha, SP, 2101 Draft, Round 13
Antonio Gonzalez, 1B, Inaugural Draft, Round 4
Stephen Housley, LF, 2109 Draft, Round 3
Bob Turner, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 16
Guastao Sardinheiro, MR, 2107 Draft, Round 4
Nikita Agaev, SS, 2105 Draft, Round 2
Clifford Mitchell, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 1
Kusumoda Swathi, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 2
Cirayu Rasiah, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 2
Pio Seixas, RF, Inaugural Draft, Round 1
Javier Marquez, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 2
Shang-de Foong, SP, 2108 Draft, Round 4
Shah Chishti, 3B, 2105 Draft, Round 4
Tilmao Tameiro, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
Manny Flores, CF, 2107 Draft, Round 2
Wen Chang, 2B, 2109 Draft, Round 3

Round Totals out of the Top 100 (inaugural draftees are removed)

42
19
8
7
1
3
1
0
2
1
1
0
2
0
1
0
3
0
1
0

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Author Topic: WBA 2112 Season Preview (Read 2639 times)

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