2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis

[Huckleberry]

I'm not going to follow all of the transactions in the IBL like I do for my league, but I'd thought I'd start a thread and throw out the model's take on next year's IBL.  Basically the model says this is the year that Tokyo's long game strategy pays off in spades.  Unfortunately for Tokyoites, the Samurai are planning to relocate when the calendar turns.  Some disclaimers on the model:

• It is based on the regression analysis and subsequent coefficients I did for the ABL.  So the numbers are automatically wrong for the IBL.  Close I would assume, but wrong.
• As always there are a lot of assumptions I make, including lineups, etc., that won't match what the guy running the team actually does.

I will try to update this from time to time but probably won't be as frequent as the ABL.  Feel free to discuss offseason moves here.

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Paris Fleur-de-Lis 95 61 0.609 - Scottish Claymores 81 75 0.519 14 Black Forest Foxes 72 84 0.462 23 London Monarchs 66 90 0.423 29 Lagos Eagles 51 105 0.327 44 ASIAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Tokyo Samurai 111 45 0.712 - Mumbai Cobras 89 67 0.571 22 Singapore Merlions 75 81 0.481 36 Seoul Crushers 70 86 0.449 41 Karachi Falcons 70 86 0.449 41

[Coop]

Surprising to see Karachi so low after an aggressive offseason.  Also hard to imagine the always-strong Merlions finishing below .500.

I'm not surprised to see Tokyo/Brisbane take a big leap forward; I fully expect that to happen.  But I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they won't actually win 111 games.

[claphamsa]

not likely to lose my best hitter and then win 6 more games

[Huckleberry]

Update: Lagos starting to spend some money on guys, Tokyo is now Brisbane and they are not resting on their laurels as they picked up a couple of more pieces.

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Paris Fleur-de-Lis 91 65 0.583 - Scottish Claymores 77 79 0.494 14 Black Forest Foxes 73 83 0.468 18 London Monarchs 65 91 0.417 26 Lagos Eagles 63 93 0.404 28 ASIAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Brisbane Bandits 112 44 0.718 - Mumbai Cobras 87 69 0.558 25 Singapore Merlions 74 82 0.474 38 Karachi Falcons 71 85 0.455 41 Seoul Crushers 67 89 0.429 45

[Huckleberry]

Just realized that these predicted standings would mean a team with a losing record in the playoffs.

[Huckleberry]

After the last couple of weeks of moves (and some more of my constant tinkering with formulas)

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Paris Fleur-de-Lis 88 68 0.564 - Scottish Claymores 81 75 0.519 7 Black Forest Foxes 72 84 0.462 16 London Monarchs 64 92 0.410 24 Lagos Eagles 63 93 0.404 25 ASIAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Brisbane Bandits 112 44 0.718 - Mumbai Cobras 86 70 0.551 26 Singapore Merlions 73 83 0.468 39 Karachi Falcons 72 84 0.462 40 Seoul Crushers 69 87 0.442 43

[Coop]

So, is Brisbane going to start selling playoff tickets during spring training?

[Txhorns]

So I should just give up now.  Good to know.

[Huckleberry]

Ha.  No, you just may have to rebuilt for a couple of seasons.  Or pay the commissioner $1000.  Either or.

[Txhorns]

Yes it will be a long rebuild for me.  Do you take Best Buy coupons?

[Huckleberry]

Not yet, but let's see how bad the O&G sector gets before I make a final decision.

Now for another update.  Brisbane signed Prospero Calaa but they're now seeing diminishing returns for each signing.  Once you're a heavy favorite it's hard to keep increasing that projection.  Depth never hurts, of course.  And Lagos' signing of Semei Luwandi (who I tried to steal with a bargain basement offer a couple of sims ago  ) moves them out of the projection cellar by a game.

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Paris Fleur-de-Lis 89 67 0.571 - Scottish Claymores 81 75 0.519 8 Black Forest Foxes 73 83 0.468 16 Lagos Eagles 64 92 0.410 25 London Monarchs 63 93 0.404 26 ASIAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Brisbane Bandits 113 43 0.724 - Mumbai Cobras 85 71 0.545 28 Singapore Merlions 73 83 0.468 40 Karachi Falcons 71 85 0.455 42 Seoul Crushers 68 88 0.436 45

[Claybor]

London may surprise some folks. I am not saying that we will be competitive quite yet, but we have quite a few young guys that are only (hopefully) going to get better as the season progresses.

[Coop]

Yeah, London has a lot of good young talent.  And the Monarchs have more money than anybody, so if they ever need a free agent, they can get him no matter how badly anybody else wants him.

[Huckleberry]

Agreed, have to remember that these are based on my "optimal lineup" determinations for every team.  I could very well be wrong on a lot of that, after all once again I am one of the 5 ABL teams that hasn't yet managed to win the league.

Plus it doesn't take into account injury history at all.  The best players in each organization are counted on to start the full season (with some depth calculations thrown in as position players miss time during the year due to fatigue).

[reflections311]

Everyone is invited to Brisbane for the playoffs.

[Txhorns]

Y'all can have a playoff watch party in Brisbane while Lagos goes from worst to first and wins it all.

[Karachi_GM]

Karachi will win more than 71 games. 

[Huckleberry]

Final predicted standings as spring training is underway:

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Paris Fleur-de-Lis 89 67 0.571 - Scottish Claymores 81 75 0.519 8 Black Forest Foxes 72 84 0.462 17 Lagos Eagles 65 91 0.417 24 London Monarchs 61 95 0.391 28 ASIAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Brisbane Bandits 113 43 0.724 - Mumbai Cobras 91 65 0.583 22 Singapore Merlions 73 83 0.468 40 Karachi Falcons 69 87 0.442 44 Seoul Crushers 66 90 0.423 47 OOTP's predictions: Some big differences here as well, although the Brisbane predictions match up pretty well.  In the Afro-European Division my predictions match OOTP's exactly on Lagos and London but are off by 11-17 games on the other three.  In the Asian Division the Brisbane and Karachi numbers are off by one.  My prediction is not nearly as high on Singapore as OOTP.

[Coop]

I can't see my Foxes winning 83 games.  We're in rebuilding mode and we've got too many holes to make any serious upward move just yet.  We're in kind of a grey area, not bad enough to have any chance at a #1 or #2 draft pick but not good enough to be at a point where signing a couple of top free agents would make us contenders.  It's not a good situation, really.  My approach has been to shed payroll and build through the draft but I don't draft high enough to get the players who are real game changers.  I'm afraid I'm going to be stuck in the middle of the pack for a long, long time.

[Txhorns]

I worked on my rosters this morning.  My starting shortstop and second baseman are both players drafted this year.  Neither one was my first pick either.