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Author Topic: WBA 2112 Season Preview  (Read 3139 times)

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Offline Huckleberry

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WBA 2112 Season Preview
« on: February 18, 2018, 07:43:29 AM »
Monday, February 1, 2112
Santo Domingo


It's time for our annual WBA Preview edition. As always we bring you the official Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ results.

First, the ABL.

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Northwest Emeralds98580.628-
Los Angeles Stars84720.53814
Mexico City Aztecs74820.47424
Ottawa Whiskey Jacks70860.44928
Carolina Flight65910.41733

LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Buenos Aires Dolphins98580.628-
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars87690.55811
Sao Paulo Toucans73830.46825
Puerto Rico Coqui66900.42332
Santo Domingo Palmchats65910.41733

Last year the Predictor 3000 thought that the eventual WBA Champion Jaguars would miss the playoffs. While the computer isn't as down on them this season the thought is that they will once again need a special and fortuitous playoff run to become the second team to repeat as world champions.

Overall, though, we shouldn't expect much change in the ABL balance of power. The only change in playoff teams predicted for 2112 is Los Angeles taking Mexico City's place. Aztec fans are probably still too busy celebrating their country's WBA triumph to concern themselves with preseason predictions of doom, however. One interesting note is that the balance between divisions in the ABL appears vastly improved as the North American is actually predicted to have a winning record over the Latin American for the first time in recent memory. Whether they can turn that into their first ABL pennant since Los Angeles's 2104 world title remains to be seen.

Now, the IBL:

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Black Forest Foxes102540.654-
London Monarchs90660.57712
Barcelona Bulls86700.55116
Rome Generals81750.51921
Paris Fleur-de-Lis461100.29556

ASIAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Karachi Falcons87690.558-
Mumbai Cobras84720.5383
Shanghai Sharks81750.5196
Manila Folders69870.44218
Melbourne Meteors541020.34633

It looks like another exciting year in the IBL with 7 teams looking like strong playoff contenders. In the European Division the Foxes are favored to bounce back with another division championship but London doesn't look like their first playoff appearance will be a fluke. Defending pennant winners Barcelona are in for a fight to earn a chance to defend their league title.

Meanwhile in the Asian Division dire financial straits have caught up with 2108 world champion Melbourne and they're starting to hurt in Mumbai as well. Karachi is favored to repeat as division champions while this may be the year that the process pays off with a playoff appearance in Shanghai if things break right.

Offline Coop

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2018, 01:57:58 PM »
As GM of the Foxes, I obviously love the look of these predictions, especially since we even have one of the league's lower payrolls, but I'm not counting on anything.  One issue my team has is that several key players are listed as "Fragile."  Most of them spent a fair amount of time on the DL last year, and if they do so again this year, we certainly won't be winning 102 games.  (For those who care, my key players who are Fragile are RF Bao-tian Qian, 3B An-shi Chin, CF Jim Alexander, SP Huo-tu Cheng and RP Manny Juarez.  Qian and Cheng were both listed as "Normal" at the start of last season, but each one got hurt during the 2111 campaign and OOTP immediately reclassified them as "Fragile," which prompted some bad language in the Black Forest executive suite.)

Also I notice that the Afro-Euro Division is insanely strong; going to be hard for any team to win 100+ games playing most of its games in that division.

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2018, 04:20:00 PM »
Yep, my system doesn't take injury proneness into account at all. Andy Stone is a legend in the Huckleberry Predictor 3000™!

Offline JohnC

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2018, 11:48:19 AM »
? A 2 game improvement? With adding Yamada, Amico, Reeves, Hernandez, and Jiang?

Me thinks the Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ is broken.

Offline Echo127

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2018, 05:49:23 PM »
? A 2 game improvement? With adding Yamada, Amico, Reeves, Hernandez, and Jiang?

Me thinks the Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ is broken.

That was my thought, too. And I'm predicted to win significantly more than last year's Huckleberry Predictor 3000™ said, despite only adding Chris Boone and losing Pedro Alejandre to regression.

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2018, 01:51:05 PM »
Okay, with draft picks in the organizations, recent signings, and recent trades, here are the updated predictions:

ABL

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Northwest Emeralds97590.622-
Los Angeles Stars83730.53214
Mexico City Aztecs73830.46824
Ottawa Whiskey Jacks69870.44228
Carolina Flight65910.41732

LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Buenos Aires Dolphins99570.635-
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars87690.55812
Sao Paulo Toucans72840.46227
Puerto Rico Coqui68880.43631
Santo Domingo Palmchats67890.42932

IBL

AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Black Forest Foxes103530.660-
London Monarchs90660.57713
Barcelona Bulls88680.56415
Rome Generals81750.51922
Paris Fleur-de-Lis471090.30156

ASIAN DIVISION
TeamWLPCTGB
Karachi Falcons90660.577-
Mumbai Cobras83730.5327
Shanghai Sharks81750.5199
Manila Folders63930.40427
Melbourne Meteors541020.34636

And the 2112 Preseason Power Rankings:

WBA POWER RANKINGS
#TeamWLPCTGB
1. Buenos Aires Dolphins101550.647-
2. Northwest Emeralds98580.6283
3. Black Forest Foxes97590.6224
4. Rio de Janeiro Jaguars90660.57711
5. London Monarchs87690.55814
5. Los Angeles Stars87690.55814
7. Barcelona Bulls85710.54516
8. Karachi Falcons83730.53218
9. Rome Generals78780.50023
9. Mumbai Cobras78780.50023
11. Mexico City Aztecs77790.49424
12. Sao Paulo Toucans76800.48725
13. Shanghai Sharks75810.48126
14. Ottawa Whiskey Jacks73830.46828
15. Puerto Rico Coqui72840.46229
15. Santo Domingo Palmchats72840.46229
17. Carolina Flight70860.44931
18. Manila Folders60960.38541
19. Melbourne Meteors511050.32750
20. Paris Fleur-de-Lis481080.30853

DIVISION RANKINGS:

WBA DIVISION RANKINGS
#DivisionWPCT
1. Latin American0.530
2. Afro-European0.518
3. North American0.518
4. Asian0.434

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2018, 01:57:44 PM »
Congratulations are in order for Mexico City. Last year's eventual WBA Champion Rio de Janeiro was predicted to miss the playoffs in my predictions and was #11 in the overall WBA power rankings.

Offline claphamsa

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2018, 07:42:29 PM »
so i sign a mega FA, then trade him...and gain 1 game in the projections!

Offline Echo127

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2018, 09:37:29 PM »
Huck, how do you get access to the info you use to make your predictions? Im guessing that you sont manually look through every organization.

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2018, 06:13:30 AM »
Copy and paste from the players screens into a spreadsheet. You can edit views but the key is clicking on Report...Write report to disk. Then it opens in a browser and you can copy/paste.


Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2018, 03:00:58 PM »
FYI to all as I got a question about this. By players screens I meant the Players list for your organization, like this:


Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2018, 01:31:40 PM »
WBA Times 2112 Preseason Top Players Lists

These lists are not straight from OOTP but are based on my player value model, the same on that my crappy predictions use. However, unlike the predictions, I took the 21 highest value players at each position and called #21 the replacement value for that position. So these rankings are based on each player's value above #21 at their position. For starting pitchers it's their value compared to #101, for relief pitchers it's their value compared to #66 (I assumed 5-man rotations and an even mix of 11-man and 12-man pitching staffs). Another disclaimer is that I put each player at their best defensive position based on my model as well. So if you have a guy learning a new spot then he got dinged. If you have a bunch of guys who share a position (like London having a whole bunch of dudes who should be first basemen) then that's reflected here as well.

Top 100 Overall

Spoiler: show


Top 50 Position Players

Spoiler: show


Top 30 Starting Pitchers

Spoiler: show


Top 35 Relievers

Spoiler: show


I started this exercise just as a way to reevaluate players in the WBA but thought I'd share. From the results I've already noticed some things about my system I may want to tweak (e.g., relievers without good stuff appear to be overrated).

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2018, 01:34:27 PM »
By the way, for now I've decided against publishing my own top prospects list. Ha.

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2018, 09:17:43 AM »
Well I couldn't resist, so after enough tweaking to where I think it won't affect my ability to trade, here are my Top Prospect lists.

Top 100 Overall

Spoiler: show


Top 50 Position Players

Spoiler: show


Top 30 Starting Pitchers

Spoiler: show


Top 35 Relief Pitchers

Spoiler: show

Offline claphamsa

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2018, 09:44:17 AM »
the top lists are all BS!

#hashimoto for MVP!

Offline Echo127

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2018, 09:52:18 AM »
Holy crap, Reinhardt Rueckl. Drafted with potential stuff = 8. Now potential stuff = 13.

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2018, 09:54:42 AM »
Well they're based on my system and I, uh, haven't won much the last few years so take them with a huge grain of salt.

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2018, 09:55:49 AM »
Holy crap, Reinhardt Rueckl. Drafted with potential stuff = 8. Now potential stuff = 13.

Some of that is switching from SP to relief. But yeah, he's a weird case. He's got two great pitches but one of them is supposed to tank based on potential. But he's got another pitch that is supposed to become elite to make up for it.

Offline Claybor

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2018, 10:18:59 AM »
Posted to wrong thread.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 10:21:00 AM by Claybor »

Offline CaseyBlakeDeWitt

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2018, 12:03:32 PM »
Some of that is switching from SP to relief. But yeah, he's a weird case. He's got two great pitches but one of them is supposed to tank based on potential. But he's got another pitch that is supposed to become elite to make up for it.

Yeah, his stuff drops to 11 as a SP. His Change-Up (the pitch thats current rating is way outrunning its potential) has actually gone up this spring and he added a 4th pitch over the offseason. I'm optimistic he'll be able to find success as a starter for at least a little while.

Rueckl is also the second guy I've had receive a crazy uptick in stuff post-draft, with Juan Padilla rocketing from 6 to 12 (though Rome actually drafted Rueckl, not me).

Offline Huckleberry

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Re: WBA 2112 Season Preview
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2018, 08:05:04 AM »
Thought I'd go through the overall top players list to see where guys were drafted because there's a lot of interest in 1st rounders tanking, etc. Here is the Top 100 and their draft round.

Spoiler: show

  • Ryan Hernandez, 3B, 2105 Draft, Round 9
  • Akrura Puli, C, 2105 Draft, Round 2
  • Carlos Vargas, SS, 2102 Draft, Round 1
  • Salim Tuncay, 3B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Serhat Karpat, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 2
  • Haywood Ward, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 1
  • Zia Sirki, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
  • Roberto Parrina, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
  • Mathew Burke, SP, 2110 Draft, Round 1
  • Erik Schiff, 1B, 2107 Draft, Round 2
  • Teodosio Mascarenhas, C, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Tamirat Sifiye, SS, 2103 Draft, Round 2
  • Dan Harmon, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 15
  • Felipe Corond, SS, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Achaius Mainaky, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 7
  • Yu-shu Lung, SP, 2104 Draft, Round 6
  • Afzul Isfahani, 1B, 2107 Draft, Round 2
  • Shi-fu Cen, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 3
  • Jason Himes, 2B, 2106 Draft, Round 2
  • Miguel Angel Martinez, LF, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Pedro Gomez, LF, 2105 Draft, Round 3
  • Tom McGregor, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Jay Standish, LF, 2109 Draft, Round 1
  • Juliano Barrantes, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
  • Antonio Rivera, SS, 2107 Draft, Round 3
  • Hector Velasquez, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Sapto Djojopoespito, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 2
  • Zhi-jun Thum, C, 2107 Draft, Round 3
  • Steve Tibbs, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Tomas Salinas, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 4
  • Nick Hammond, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 2
  • Alfredo Ruiz, 2B, 2105 Draft, Round 2
  • Gaudencio Brigham, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 3
  • Ronnie Drew, CF, 2105 Draft, Round 13
  • Gaudencio Bobadilha, SP, 2108 Draft, Round 1
  • Mabarak Mohmand, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 1
  • Sadiq Sumai, 1B, 2105 Draft, Round 9
  • Saud Naji, C, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Ben Reese, SP, 2102 Draft, Round 1
  • Piero Folena, SS, 2102 Draft, Round 1
  • Ahvana Subbarayudu, 1B, 2102 Draft, Round 1
  • Cisco Argente, SS, 2102 Draft, Round 1
  • Justin White, MR, Inaugural Draft, Round 4
  • Astika Saraswathi, SP, 2105 Draft, Round 2
  • Cheslav Zamorov, LF, 2102 Draft, Round 1
  • Wang-fen Xiang, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Abdeljilill Abedi, SP, 2104 Draft, Round 6
  • Ahmad Iman, 3B, 2105 Draft, Round 1
  • Wei-kang Ping, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Itri Jela, C, 2104 Draft, Round 17
  • Tony Gutierrez, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Jorge Tapia, RF, 2109 Draft, Round 1
  • Jesus Huerta, 3B, 2109 Draft, Round 1
  • Jin-guo Chin, 3B, 2104 Draft, Round 4
  • Owen Stanton, 2B, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Michael Smith, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 1
  • Ricardo Peralta, 3B, 2108 Draft, Round 1
  • Ming Song, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Tony Cruz, RF, 2105 Draft, Round 2
  • Tariq Ali Khan, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Khamurti Preetish, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 4
  • Bhuvanacandra Dwijen, LF, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Gong Jiang, LF, 2103 Draft, Round 1
  • Jim Alexander, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 3
  • Blake Waller, C, 2107 Draft, Round 6
  • Doan Ba, 1B, 2106 Draft, Round 17
  • Roberto Morales, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 9
  • Gadiel bin Salman, SP, 2102 Draft, Round 1
  • Baldassario Canalo, SP, 2105 Draft, Round 5
  • Angelo Chavez, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 1
  • Sun-ho Kim, 1B, 2104 Draft, Round 4
  • Germano Penaguio, 2B, 2107 Draft, Round 2
  • Han-wu Han, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 17
  • Ivan Lopez, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Janardan Shreerang, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 19
  • Harsendu Dhurvasula, LF, 2103 Draft, Round 10
  • Aziz Ahmadzai, RF, 2104 Draft, Round 2
  • Raul Rodriguez, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 2
  • Andy Stone, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 91
  • Huo-tu Cheng, SP, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Pat Morris, SP, 2105 Draft, Round 1
  • Nasih bin Kamil, SP, 2104 Draft, Round 11
  • Kenkichi Adachi, CF, 2108 Draft, Round 2
  • Serafino Cunhal, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 1
  • Zuleide Rainha, SP, 2101 Draft, Round 13
  • Antonio Gonzalez, 1B, Inaugural Draft, Round 4
  • Stephen Housley, LF, 2109 Draft, Round 3
  • Bob Turner, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 16
  • Guastao Sardinheiro, MR, 2107 Draft, Round 4
  • Nikita Agaev, SS, 2105 Draft, Round 2
  • Clifford Mitchell, SP, Inaugural Draft, Round 1
  • Kusumoda Swathi, SP, 2106 Draft, Round 2
  • Cirayu Rasiah, SP, 2103 Draft, Round 2
  • Pio Seixas, RF, Inaugural Draft, Round 1
  • Javier Marquez, RF, 2108 Draft, Round 2
  • Shang-de Foong, SP, 2108 Draft, Round 4
  • Shah Chishti, 3B, 2105 Draft, Round 4
  • Tilmao Tameiro, LF, 2107 Draft, Round 1
  • Manny Flores, CF, 2107 Draft, Round 2
  • Wen Chang, 2B, 2109 Draft, Round 3


Round Totals out of the Top 100 (inaugural draftees are removed)

  • 42
  • 19
  • 8
  • 7
  • 1
  • 3
  • 1
  • 0
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 0
  • 2
  • 0
  • 1
  • 0
  • 3
  • 0
  • 1
  • 0


 

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